1 00:00:03,710 --> 00:00:01,730 so what we're talking about is the 2 00:00:05,809 --> 00:00:03,720 Earth's northern polar icecap and what 3 00:00:07,070 --> 00:00:05,819 that's made of is ice that's floating on 4 00:00:08,540 --> 00:00:07,080 top of the Arctic Ocean 5 00:00:10,759 --> 00:00:08,550 and this is ice that's anywhere from 6 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:10,769 like three feet at the thinnest to about 7 00:00:14,299 --> 00:00:13,170 20 feet at the maximum and we're 8 00:00:15,829 --> 00:00:14,309 interested in this ice for a couple of 9 00:00:17,570 --> 00:00:15,839 reasons the first thing is right now it 10 00:00:19,939 --> 00:00:17,580 functions like a giant mirror on the top 11 00:00:21,470 --> 00:00:19,949 of the planet and when sunlight comes in 12 00:00:24,470 --> 00:00:21,480 it reflects those rays of light back 13 00:00:26,839 --> 00:00:24,480 into space well ice has very different 14 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:26,849 reflectivity than water water is a lot 15 00:00:30,980 --> 00:00:28,890 darker so as that ice retreats we get 16 00:00:32,780 --> 00:00:30,990 more dark water exposed now that 17 00:00:35,959 --> 00:00:32,790 incoming solar radiation gets absorbed 18 00:00:37,639 --> 00:00:35,969 and it heats up the water and that also 19 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:37,649 increases the amp out of ice that melts 20 00:00:42,500 --> 00:00:39,690 now somebody need to understand too is 21 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:42,510 that that ice is dynamic every winter it 22 00:00:47,540 --> 00:00:44,850 grows and continues out and then every 23 00:00:49,369 --> 00:00:47,550 summer it melts back the reason people 24 00:00:51,950 --> 00:00:49,379 are concerned right now is that in the 25 00:00:54,740 --> 00:00:51,960 past few years we've seen a dramatic 26 00:00:57,590 --> 00:00:54,750 summer melting that takes the ice back 27 00:01:00,229 --> 00:00:57,600 to a point that's far far far smaller 28 00:01:03,590 --> 00:01:00,239 than we've ever seen it before and in 29 00:01:05,960 --> 00:01:03,600 2009 we set the stage for another year 30 00:01:08,960 --> 00:01:05,970 of this continued melting and reaching 31 00:01:11,210 --> 00:01:08,970 what are near record lows this is 32 00:01:13,310 --> 00:01:11,220 important though not just because of how 33 00:01:15,289 --> 00:01:13,320 much ice we have in terms of extent the 34 00:01:17,870 --> 00:01:15,299 thickness of that ice is also important 35 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:17,880 and in 2009 what we also released were 36 00:01:22,130 --> 00:01:19,530 some new satellite results where with 37 00:01:23,870 --> 00:01:22,140 first time were able to figure out what 38 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:23,880 the thickness of the Arctic ice is all 39 00:01:28,670 --> 00:01:25,770 over the place and we're finding is that 40 00:01:31,219 --> 00:01:28,680 it's thinner now and that also thinner 41 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:31,229 ice is easier to melt and thick ice and 42 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:33,290 so all of this is setting the stage for 43 00:01:39,109 --> 00:01:36,930 predictions of an Arctic that is 44 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:39,119 ice-free in summer months somewhere in 45 00:01:44,300 --> 00:01:42,329 the coming decades now we don't know 46 00:01:45,469 --> 00:01:44,310 when it's gonna happen but it's the 47 00:01:48,289 --> 00:01:45,479 kinda thing that a lot of people are 48 00:01:50,359 --> 00:01:48,299 working on trying to model but it's so 49 00:01:52,730 --> 00:01:50,369 obvious that this is happening that 50 00:01:54,590 --> 00:01:52,740 people that live in the Arctic regions 51 00:01:57,590 --> 00:01:54,600 and the countries that border the Arctic 52 00:01:59,780 --> 00:01:57,600 are planning facilities based on there 53 00:02:01,700 --> 00:01:59,790 being less ice there are people building 54 00:02:04,130 --> 00:02:01,710 warm water ports there are oil companies 55 00:02:05,209 --> 00:02:04,140 preparing to do exploration people 56 00:02:07,580 --> 00:02:05,219 talking about using it as a 57 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:07,590 transportation route but also the Arctic 58 00:02:10,219 --> 00:02:08,970 people's that live there they're 59 00:02:11,839 --> 00:02:10,229 observing these change and they're 60 00:02:13,270 --> 00:02:11,849 saying things like hey we used to be 61 00:02:16,060 --> 00:02:13,280 able to walk out on the sea I 62 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:16,070 and now we can't do that anymore so 63 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:17,570 these changes are real and they're 64 00:02:21,580 --> 00:02:20,090 happening and what we're trying to do at 65 00:02:24,580 --> 00:02:21,590 NASA is like I say to go out and 66 00:02:26,410 --> 00:02:24,590 characterize this ice understand how it 67 00:02:28,450 --> 00:02:26,420 works how is it affected by ocean 68 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:28,460 currents how is it affected by winds how 69 00:02:32,890 --> 00:02:30,770 is it affected by sunlight so that we 70 00:02:35,050 --> 00:02:32,900 can correlate that with the changes we 71 00:02:38,260 --> 00:02:35,060 see in the atmosphere and develop better 72 00:02:40,570 --> 00:02:38,270 predictive models we study the Arctic 73 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:40,580 sea ice with a range of tools the most 74 00:02:44,740 --> 00:02:43,010 important tools are satellite tools you 75 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:44,750 need to think of this ice as being 76 00:02:48,070 --> 00:02:46,250 continent scale okay this isn't 77 00:02:49,630 --> 00:02:48,080 something you can get with a single 78 00:02:51,580 --> 00:02:49,640 aircraft light and that's why NASA is 79 00:02:53,650 --> 00:02:51,590 really important because we operate the 80 00:02:55,510 --> 00:02:53,660 satellites you can study it with because 81 00:02:57,820 --> 00:02:55,520 from that we can tell what the 82 00:02:59,530 --> 00:02:57,830 concentration of ice is you know is it 83 00:03:01,090 --> 00:02:59,540 ice that's a foot thick that's covering 84 00:03:04,180 --> 00:03:01,100 everything or is it little patches of 85 00:03:05,890 --> 00:03:04,190 ice but that's not the whole story we 86 00:03:07,510 --> 00:03:05,900 also need detailed studies we're 87 00:03:10,270 --> 00:03:07,520 interested in how rough is the surface 88 00:03:12,310 --> 00:03:10,280 this ice is in some places it's smooth 89 00:03:14,590 --> 00:03:12,320 like that pond in the Midwest that 90 00:03:16,540 --> 00:03:14,600 freezes every winter but in other cases 91 00:03:18,550 --> 00:03:16,550 that ice has been blown and crunched 92 00:03:20,590 --> 00:03:18,560 together and we get ridges and mounds 93 00:03:22,030 --> 00:03:20,600 and things like that we also put people 94 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:22,040 out there on the ground just walking 95 00:03:26,020 --> 00:03:24,050 around studying things we'll also study 96 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:26,030 with aircraft and aircraft are great 97 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:28,010 because the tools we can use an aircraft 98 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:30,050 do different things and satellites or 99 00:03:35,140 --> 00:03:33,050 ground studies we map how much snow has 100 00:03:36,610 --> 00:03:35,150 fallen on the ice we try to measure the 101 00:03:37,870 --> 00:03:36,620 size of cracks as they were called 102 00:03:41,290 --> 00:03:37,880 leaves and put all that information 103 00:03:42,940 --> 00:03:41,300 together now why should you care if you 104 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:42,950 don't live in the Arctic areas that's a 105 00:03:47,230 --> 00:03:44,690 really good question and the fact is 106 00:03:48,850 --> 00:03:47,240 this all this stuff we talk about when 107 00:03:50,890 --> 00:03:48,860 you retreat the ice cover and you heat 108 00:03:52,390 --> 00:03:50,900 the ocean up with more sunlight you also 109 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:52,400 have to think about there's gonna be 110 00:03:55,690 --> 00:03:54,290 more water evaporating to the atmosphere 111 00:03:58,180 --> 00:03:55,700 there's a lot of other exchanges going 112 00:04:00,130 --> 00:03:58,190 on that's gonna change the way that the 113 00:04:02,590 --> 00:04:00,140 Earth's climate works and we expect 114 00:04:05,260 --> 00:04:02,600 weather patterns over in North America 115 00:04:08,020 --> 00:04:05,270 to change now this stuff is very very 116 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:08,030 difficult to model but the most recent 117 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:10,370 models suggest is that if we lose the 118 00:04:14,949 --> 00:04:12,530 Arctic ice cap we may have more droughts 119 00:04:16,840 --> 00:04:14,959 in North America so these are important